[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5155 ]

2026-05-11T08:21:28Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 76% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.S. passengers on the cruise ship hit by a hantavirus outbreak will be monitored at a specialized quarantine center in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.8350
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE88.1h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5155 ]