Asia’s first defenses against energy shocks from the Iran war are running short and a more consequential second wave of impacts is beginning
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0075 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7750 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 89.1h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=12 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
—
[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5138 ]