[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5130 ]

2026-05-10T20:44:19Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US President Trump rejected Iran's response to a US proposal for peace talks to end the war, calling it 'unacceptable,' as two ships were al

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Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0105
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE99.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5130 ]