Iran’s rulers have a problem as they attempt to negotiate an end to the war: Their new supreme leader is noticeably MIA and silent on the ta
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0950 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7660 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 54.6h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 72% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=12 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5109 ]