[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5083 ]

2026-05-10T15:15:17Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump on Iran's enriched uranium, buried deep under rubble: "We'll get that at some point... We have it surveilled. I did a thing called Spa

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1440
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7850
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE105.1h

Jury split

L NO · 72%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5083 ]