[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5078 ]

2026-05-10T14:56:06Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 71% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iranian state media reported on Sunday that Tehran had sent its response to the U.S.-proposed text outlining a possible end to the ongoing w

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0950
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7075
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE57.1h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5078 ]