[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5041 ]

2026-05-10T08:27:06Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The wait stretched on for Iran’s response to a US proposal to end 10 weeks of war, as the world’s largest oil company warned it would take m

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1150
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE111.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5041 ]