[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4990 ]

2026-05-09T22:26:43Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump waits for answer from Iran on peace proposal, says ball is in Tehran's court: 'We may go back to Project Freedom' https:// trib.al/FY

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1600
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE121.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4990 ]