[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4952 ]

2026-05-09T17:23:27Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

State escalates trade row with China over Iran war ahead of Trump-Xi summit

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0950
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE127.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4952 ]