[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4944 ]

2026-05-09T17:05:10Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 21% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

GE Warren’s return to Venezuela, where it used to be active in the fuels market, comes as oil exports from the South American nation ramp up

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1250
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2062
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE127.1h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4944 ]