[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4882 ]

2026-05-09T10:24:52Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

War in the Gulf is eroding America’s capacity both to arm Taiwan and to intervene successfully in any conflict with China. What will Donald

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Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1000
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE133.6h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4882 ]