[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4871 ]

2026-05-09T09:50:19Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Bahrain says it has arrested 41 people 'linked to Iran's IRGC' http:// reut.rs/4uxKHQF

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1850
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE134.2h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4871 ]