[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4787 ]

2026-05-08T18:27:24Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 57% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says Russia and Ukraine agree 3-day ceasefire and prisoner swap

ft · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.6450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5687
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE102.0h

Jury split

L NO · 58%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4787 ]