[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4781 ]

2026-05-08T18:13:53Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 21% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

President Trump announces a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine beginning May 9, marking a historic pause in the war as Victory D

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5900
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2062
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE150.0h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4781 ]