[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4755 ]

2026-05-08T16:26:23Z · 방법론: /methodology

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YES · 21% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Pentagon releases first batch of previously secret files documenting reports of UFOs

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2062
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE96.0h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q YES · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4755 ]