[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4664 ]

2026-05-08T09:11:00Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 61% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Southeast Asian leaders seek strategy to ease impacts of Iran war http:// reut.rs/4dhiWVD

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5400
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6125
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE159.0h

Jury split

L NO · 62%
Q NO · 60%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4664 ]