[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4635 ]

2026-05-08T01:14:10Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 76% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump: Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There

truth_social · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE167.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4635 ]