US launches 'self-defense' strikes in Iran after Navy destroyers targeted, American official insists cease-fire still stands: report https:
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.5450 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7562 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 170.0h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 85% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4610 ]