Can China help end the Iran war?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.5450 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | YES |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6313 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 173.0h |
L |
YES · 68% |
Q |
YES · 55% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4563 ]