[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4559 ]

2026-05-07T19:03:31Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The conflict in the Middle East has added uncertainty to the outlook for interest rates, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE173.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4559 ]