[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4506 ]

2026-05-07T14:44:54Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The 2026 Eurovision Song Contest kicks off in Vienna on May 12, and according to an expert on the competition, it is expected to be one of t

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE201.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4506 ]