[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4306 ]

2026-05-06T22:31:05Z · 方法论: /methodology

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YES · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a memorandum of understanding aimed at breaking through the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and sett

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7312
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE194.0h

Jury split

L YES · 72%
Q YES · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4306 ]