[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4230 ]

2026-05-06T17:24:18Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

SpaceX may spend up to $119 billion on ‘Terafab’ chip factory in Texas

techcrunch · ↗ original article

Market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE47.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4230 ]