[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4169 ]

2026-05-06T13:31:57Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Shipping companies are taking a cautious approach to sending vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after signs that some kind of reopening of

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6625
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE203.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 60%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4169 ]