[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4148 ]

2026-05-06T12:50:42Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: The odds of a permanent US x Iran peace deal this year soar to record highs. 77% chance.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE203.5h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4148 ]