[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4145 ]

2026-05-06T12:50:14Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 44% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: The odds of a permanent US x Iran peace deal this year soar to record highs. 77% chance.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4375
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE203.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4145 ]