[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4111 ]

2026-05-06T11:57:00Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Rubio grabs the mic, the message and the moment. Plus, Indiana primary results endorse Trump’s grip on the GOP, and Trump accuses Pope Leo

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE300.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4111 ]