[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4023 ]

2026-05-05T22:38:08Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

'Project Freedom' takes hold with 11 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz as Trump refuses to telegraph his redline on Iran https:// trib.al/A

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE49.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4023 ]