[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-4015 ]

2026-05-05T21:44:05Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 67% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

UAE reports more attacks from Iran as US says shaky ceasefire holds - as it happened http:// reut.rs/4uuRtXl

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5600
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6687
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE50.5h

Jury split

L NO · 62%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-4015 ]