[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3986 ]

2026-05-05T17:17:38Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 76% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The US has launched a military operation to protect commercial ships and keep the Strait of Hormuz open after accusing Iran of threatening v

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE223.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3986 ]