[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3980 ]

2026-05-05T16:48:58Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

President Trump downplayed the conflict with Iran Tuesday, calling it a "skirmish" and insisting Tehran "wants to make a deal" http:// bloo

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE55.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3980 ]