[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3922 ]

2026-05-05T09:50:45Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Elon Musk settled the US Securities and Exchange Commission's civil lawsuit — accusing the world's richest person of waiting too long in 202

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE30.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3922 ]