[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3831 ]

2026-05-05T04:36:02Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

States should tax windfall oil profits to fund their way out of crisis

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE67.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3831 ]