The European Central Bank will need to raise borrowing costs in June as long as there’s no significant improvement in the outlook for consum
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.5550 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.5813 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | fed_policy |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 223.0h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3722 ]