[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3696 ]

2026-05-04T16:36:56Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Would you bet on the next disaster? The rise of prediction markets

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYfed_policy
HOURS TO CLOSE223.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3696 ]