[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3691 ]

2026-05-04T16:36:09Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Captain warns ‘no ship will be a hero’ by risking Hormuz transit

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6575
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE247.5h

Jury split

L NO · 62%
Q NO · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3691 ]