[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3645 ]

2026-05-04T14:19:35Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 60% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The second week of a blockbuster trial between Elon Musk and Sam Altman kicks off Monday, with the future of OpenAI very much up for grabs

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE26.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 60%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3645 ]