[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3640 ]

2026-05-04T14:18:39Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

NEW: Today marks six months to the midterms, and “the warning signs are flashing,” one GOP operative close to the WH told me. “For the fir

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYfed_policy
HOURS TO CLOSE250.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3640 ]