[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3617 ]

2026-05-04T13:21:22Z · 方法论: /methodology

YES · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

$BTC topped $80,000 overnight for the first time since January. http:// yhoo.it/4emzldH

Market

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.5450`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`YES`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.7200`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`crypto_prices`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`27.0h`

Jury split

`L`	YES · 72%
`Q`	YES · 72%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3617 ]