[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3586 ]

2026-05-04T11:38:55Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 36% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

What is the Ukrainian anti-drone system Sky Map being used in the Gulf?

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3625
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE84.5h

Jury split

L NO · 58%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3586 ]