[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3583 ]

2026-05-04T11:30:34Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran missile report sends bitcoin back to $79,000, with ETH, SOL, DOGE sharply lower

coindesk · ↗ original article

Market

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7312
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYcrypto_prices
HOURS TO CLOSE29.0h

Jury split

L NO · 72%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3583 ]