[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3571 ]

2026-05-04T10:39:07Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 71% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran's Fars News agency reports incident with U.S. warship in Strait of Hormuz http:// reut.rs/4tOnY2V

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7075
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE253.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3571 ]