[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3568 ]

2026-05-04T10:32:32Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
YES · 70% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Crypto bears got it wrong again, losing $300 million in liquidations

coindesk · ↗ original article

Market

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6950
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYcrypto_prices
HOURS TO CLOSE29.5h

Jury split

L YES · 68%
Q YES · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3568 ]