Members of the world’s ultra-wealthy are striking bets on a range of sectors seeing valuation swings in the fallout from the war in the Midd
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.5450 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.5813 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 87.5h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3540 ]