[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3519 ]

2026-05-04T07:00:32Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, some terrorism insurers have suffered losses but demand has gone up. Fear, after all, is good for

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE89.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3519 ]