[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3484 ]

2026-05-04T01:25:47Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says US to 'guide' stranded ships through Strait of Hormuz

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE95.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3484 ]