[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-3458 ]

2026-05-03T22:19:00Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

BREAKING: Trump says the U.S. will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow, while offering little optimism he will accep

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.5500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE266.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3458 ]