Germany’s Merz downplays rift with Washington despite US troop drawdown
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.5450 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.5813 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 268.5h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
| TOTAL | 1 |
| AGREE | 0 (0%) |
| DISAGREE | 1 (100%) |
[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-3425 ]