[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-10023 ]

2026-06-11T13:53:18Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

BREAKING: U.S. forces disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman overnight after it violated the naval blockade on Iran. According to CENTC

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.9990
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE82.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=39

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-10023 ]