[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-10020 ]

2026-06-11T13:52:38Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 82% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

BREAKING: U.S. forces disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman overnight after it violated the naval blockade on Iran. According to CENTC

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0365
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8150
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE82.3h

Jury split

L NO · 72%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=39

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-10020 ]